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How to Negotiate Ceasefire When You Haven’t Destroyed the Enemy’s Capability to Escalate – Indian War Lessons for the Kremlin
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Tomorrow, Monday June 2, the second round of “direct” negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian delegations will open with the exchange of term sheets, the Russian memorandum and what retired US Army General Keith Kellogg calls the twenty-two points which have been drafted by the US and FUGUP (France, United Kingdom, Germany, Ukraine and Poland).

Speaking for President Donald Trump and the Europeans, Kellogg has announced that he has read both term sheets, and that when the talks open in Istanbul, the Ukrainian delegation will have behind them the national security advisors of the US, France, UK, and Germany. Kellogg believes both sides in the talks, the US-backed Ukrainians and the Russians, have fresh escalation capacities still to be used against each other. According to Kellogg, Trump is aiming to prevent President Vladimir Putin countering each one of the Ukrainian allies now arming their escalation, including – he added – Finland.

“The reason I believe the US has to stay involved”, Kellogg said, “is because of escalation…You have an escalation ladder. You better know when to get off it. If you don’t get off, you’ve got a big problem.”

In this discussion of India’s Operation Sindoor against Pakistan last month, and Russia’s three-year Special Military Operation, senior Indian military officers (retired), Lieutenant General Ravi Shankar and Brigadier Arun Saghal demonstrate how effective the Indian forces were in destroying Pakistan’s capability for escalation, and compelling the ceasefire Pakistan applied for.

Together, we discuss the Indian lessons and apply them to the next stage of Russia’s negotiations with all its adversaries on the Ukrainian battlefield.

Click for Sunday’s hour-long podcast.

From Moscow a well-informed expert on Russian policy-making comments on the course of the negotiations to date between President Putin and President Trump. “We understand that Trump wanted a cheap and quick grandstanding victory as a gift from the Russians. So he played all his cards – placating Putin, complimenting him, threatening him, abusing him. Now all those cards have been used. The Russians stuck to its line, “Let’s have technical and detailed talks.” The Russians also adjusted their position to indicate they were willing to go for a ceasefire before a comprehensive end-of-war agreement, and even before the talks proceeded. But they did not move from their fundamental positions and in the meantime they have hit Ukrainians and kept on hitting harder than ever before. So Trump also got the messages from his generals, his intel, and the Europeans of the imminent Russian victories.”

“This was the build-up. Then let us add that the US aided and abetted the [May 20] attack on Putin. Either Trump was not briefed before or he was briefed in small print he couldn’t read. But now it’s crunch time. The Ukrainians are waiting for instructions from Washington. If there are no clear instructions from Trump, the Europeans will take charge and scuttle the talks, blaming Putin again. Let us see what Trump does next. It’s a matter of a few days now and Russians have played their hand well. If Trump claims to be walking away, this means he intends the Europeans to take charge of escalating the fight – and he will keep arming that.”

For the accompanying analysis by Lieutenant General Harimohan Iyer of the “new mode of warfare” used by the Indian military to stop Pakistan’s escalation options, click to view here. These are Iyer’s illustrations of the escalation ladder.

Click on source to view enlarged slides — https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ncybpdCVOEk

Lieutenant General Shankar retired from the Indian Army as Director General of Artillery in October 2016.

Brigadier (retired) Saghal is one of the leading intelligence analysts in India. With a PhD from Allahabad University, he was the founding Director of the Office of Net Assessment, a unit of the Indian Integrated Defence Staff for preparing long-term strategic analyses and forecasts. He has also served as a consultant to the National Security Council, the principal advisor to the Prime Ministry on military and security policy. Dr Saghal has also played leading roles in the Indian Centre for Strategic Studies and Simulation (Cs3) and the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

When he retired in 2024, Lieutenant General Harimohan Iyer was Commandant of the School of Artillery.

(Republished from John Helmer by permission of author or representative)
 
• Category: Foreign Policy • Tags: Donald Trump, NATO, Russia, Ukraine, Vladimir Putin 
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  1. Notsofast says:

    there were two bridges blown up in russia yesterday, leading to two train wrecks and multiple casualties. five air bases were attacked with drones leading to the loss of planes. all of these attacks were the acts of sabotage from within the russian federation.

    perhaps this is trump’s threats of “really bad things happening”, being made good. i don’t believe this will sabotage the “talks” or in anyway change the russians position on their demands being met in order to have a peaceful solution.

    what this may do however, is increase the need to dispose of the terrorist state, that zato installed in ukraine in 2014. if this is the case, i think the gloves will come off during the likely russian offensive. i can see putin saying that the increasing acts of terror, leave them no option but to remove this terrorist threat and they will no long tolerate western duplicitous and complicity in their terrorist acts and they are now forced to destroy all of the starlink satellites the terrorists are using to target their forces and civilians in the russian federation.

    i think the reason they have threatened to do so but have not as yet followed through on this threat, is simple. they wanted to save that, until they were ready for a full scale assault, in order to cause as much confusion and panic in their enemies, that rely so heavily on western technologies and weapons systems.

    now they can play the fighting terrorism to protect the homeland card, that the zioneocon demon empire has used for the last 25 years, as a carte blanche casus belli. if zato wants to attempt to escalate, take out their drones and awacs. blind them, overrun the exhausted 4th itteration of the ukranazi proxy army and if these e.u. cowards attempt further escalation start striking targets in their homelands.

    if this doesn’t play out as aggressively as i describe, look for tit for tat acts of terrorism within their countries, perhaps a ship could run into the francis scott key bridge, oh wait a minute that already happened, well their are plenty of bridges that are still standing.

    • Replies: @Notsofast
    , @Aldonichts
    , @ghali
  2. ghali says:

    This is the biggest load of BS I have ever read on the subject. Overwhelming evidence points to the opposite. Last Saturday, India acknowledged this very fact. The Russians seem to have run out of ways to defend the extremist Hindutva and the Satanic Jewish regimes.

  3. What the HELL is “Losis of Fact”?

    At least I can figure out “Covert Opeerations”

    Maybe it’s some kind of game, or puzzle.

  4. Notsofast says:
    @Notsofast

    breaking news just in:

    https://www.rt.com/russia/618464-rubio-lavrov-spoke-strikes/

    looks like it might be trump who is playing with fire,. why do they allow retarded children to play with matches?

    • Replies: @Bill Jones
  5. @Notsofast

    Notsofast, I’m following your comments. Sometimes they’re more penetrating than the articles themselves. I’m noticing a certain frustration or discouragement now about what you think Russia might do. Is it what they don’t want to do or what they can’t do?

    • Replies: @Notsofast
  6. @Notsofast

    When a Clown moves into a Palace, the Clown doesn’t become a Prince, the Palace becomes a circus.

    • Agree: Curmudgeon
  7. Notsofast says:
    @Aldonichts

    the russians are in the catbird seat, i don’t see them making strategic mistakes and anyway they want to play this, will work out to their advantage. i am merely pointing out directions that they may take it, or that seem plausible to me. their slow grind in ukraine is devastating both the ukranazis and the zato hosts that spawned them.

    zato on the other hand makes strategic mistake after mistake and are becoming evermore desperate in their actions. they are having to resort to terrorist acts, after having been thoroughly humiliated on the battlefield. all this can do is intensify russian response and make their people more supportive of their government and military, as well as steel their will to see this through to a just conclusion.

    that said, their offensive is heating up and we all know the ukrainians will not accept the territorial loses demanded by the russians. they have stated clearly if their demands are not met the ukrainians will lose even more territory, including sumy and odessa. the longer this goes on the better it will turn out for the russians.

  8. ghali says:
    @Notsofast

    Ukrainian drones hit Russian airbases in largest single-day attack since war began, targeting strategic bombers in unprecedented operation. The attacks occurred in the Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan, and Amur regions. It happened because of Russia’s defence and Intel incompetence.

    • Replies: @Notsofast
  9. Notsofast says:
    @ghali

    no it happened because it was sabotage, funded by zatonazis in the city of london and if they want to play the terrorism game, they should watch their asses, as they are wide open to the same and this time it won’t be one of their own false flags. if they keep up their terrorist actions they will eventually get the war they seem to want but don’t have the army or weapons to fight, you limey bastard.

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