
[Adapted from the latest Radio Derb, now available exclusively on VDARE.com]
As I write this, I hear food preparation noises—the clatter of pots and pans, perhaps. That’s because this evening, February 9th, is Chinese New Year’s Eve (the Language Police now demand we call it Lunar New Year) so there is some serious food prep to be done. Our own banquet with family and friends will actually be tomorrow, but the preparation is already under way.
To mark the festival, let me do a segment on China.
Listeners sometimes ask why I don’t do more commentary on China. I’m an Old China Hand, aren’t I?
Eh, only at an amateur level. In my career I’ve engaged with real Old China Hands: ex-diplomats, scholars, seasoned business people, and so on. They are the pros.
They’re not always right, mind. Back in my book-reviewing days I reviewed Gordon Chang’s deeply pessimistic book The Coming Collapse of China for the Washington Times. I noted in my review that
Gordon Chang is not an academic, but a practical man who has lived and worked in China for twenty years as an advisor to American firms. He was raised in a Chinese household; his father was born in China; he knows the country very well.
A real Old China Hand, in other words—a genuine pro. But…the date on that review? August 12th, 2001.
I am not being facetious here, and I am certainly not trying to mock Gordon Chang. He has written or co-written at least four more books about China and is still doing China commentary, often on TV. When he shows up on my TV screen, I listen to him attentively.
I just want to make the point that China-watching is not arithmetic. It’s not even vector calculus. It’s…something different.
And yes: if not a pro, I’m pretty well acquainted with China at that amateur level. I’ve been engaged with the country and its people for more than half a century, since landing at Hong Kong’s Kai Tak Airport in July 1971, a few weeks ahead of Typhoon Rose.
I subsequently lived for extended periods in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and mainland China. (Singapore is on my bucket list.) Some of my later visits to Taiwan and the mainland have been written up here at VDARE.com. (See here and here).
I’m decently well-read in Chinese history, philosophy, and literature; I have a minor academic qualification in the language, and in a forty-year career of book reviewing for respectable publications I reviewed 37 books about China. I’ve written two novels about the country myself.
So: amateur? Sure, but ignoramus? No. I married a Chinese lady, so China is my country-in-law. How well do you know your own in-laws? There you go.
All right, Derb. Enough of the self-advertisement. What do you have to tell us about China?
What I have to tell you is, it’s not easy to tell you anything. Some years ago I gave a lecture on the main problem here:
China, as one of those Old China Hands once explained to me, is a very big country, and, quote, “the edges are a long way from the middle.”
Jasper Becker, in his book about the Mao famines, tells of a reporter in China in the 1920s responding to a request from his editor for “the bottom facts.” His reply: “There is no bottom in China, and no facts.” Anyone who has engaged with this vast, ancient nation will return a hearty “Amen” to that.
John Derbyshire On Understanding China And The Chinese, August 4, 2011
So have I just thrown my hands up in despair and given up trying to make sense of the place? Not at all. I frequently check in on the China news and commentary.
Where do I check? YouTube, mostly. That comes with a warning, though. China coverage on YouTube leans heavily negative.
There are three YouTube China channels I most often check on. The China Uncensored channel, although I think well-informed, is scathingly hostile to the ruling regime over there. Winston Sterzel, [Tweet him] a South African native who vlogs as “Serpentza,” and Matthew Tye, an American vlogging as “Laowhy86” have between them over a quarter-century of living in China and offer penetrating commentary on everyday topics there, most of it critical.
There are dozens of others, including of course some upbeat ones obviously promoted by the ChiComs; but the overall tone on YouTube is very negative even when it’s not particularly polemical.
When I feel I want an antidote to all that China negativity, I check in with David Goldman at Asia Times. Goldman is definitely not a shill for the ChiComs. He understands them very well and writes frankly about their corruption and lawlessness; but he is deeply scornful of our—of America’s—foolish and feckless China policy.
In key areas like biotech, robotics, and anti-ship missiles, Goldman says China is leaving us in the dust. Strangely for a country that still calls itself communist, they are not burdened, as we are, with crippling ideologies like multiculturalism or race and sex denialism or climate-change fanaticism, nor with our elites’ world-saving missionary impulses.
Sample quote from Goldman:
China is doing something that challenges the world standing of the United States in a far more dramatic way: It is transforming economic life in parts of the developing world from the grassroots up. America’s failure to grasp this may be the single greatest blunder in the sordid history of American foreign policy.
[Mike Pompeo’s four China mistakes in one sentence , Asia Times, January 31, 2024].
I supplement this public commentary with things I hear from my wife and others who are in touch with friends and relatives over there. That’s a somewhat biased sample: educated middle-class types now mostly in their sixties.
Which means retired. China’s retirement ages are 60 for men, 55 for female white-collar workers, and 50 for female blue-collar workers. Those are the world’s lowest retirement ages.
Combined with the hangover from China’s one-child policy and plunging East Asian fertility levels overall, that creates obvious and worsening workforce problems. There are regular reports about that in our own news outlets [Why are there concerns about China’s pension system as its population ages?, by Farah Master, Reuters, January 17, 2024].
The ChiComs will have to raise those retirement ages sooner or later. Probably they hesitate to do so for fear of mass protests. Mao Tse-tung would of course just have done it and shot the protestors, but China has moved on some from Chairman Mao.
From what I hear, the cohort I’m best acquainted with by word of mouth are pretty happy: retired, nice apartments owner-occupied or at low rents, generous pensions, vacations abroad (Thailand seems to be popular)…life is good.
Visiting China in summer four years ago, I saw public parks full of oldsters happily socializing, playing card games or board games, and dancing. Chinese geezers love to dance.
If you are not a retired, educated, middle-class city dweller, life may not be so much fun. Young professionals complain about the 9-9-6 work culture: from 9 am to 9 pm, six days a week. The education system is a grueling assault course of highly-competitive exams like the famous gaokao. [China’s Gao Kao is the mother of all exams. Take a look at the 2 most important days of a Chinese high schooler’s life. by Matthew Loh, Business Insider, June 8, 2023]
China's Gao Kao is the mother of all exams. Take a look at the 2 most important days of a Chinese high schooler's life. https://t.co/v0O7uN96lF
— Insider Internet (@insiderinternet) June 8, 2023
Blue-collar life? Rural life? I have no contacts. For aspects like that, check those YouTube channels.
Is there a criminal underclass? Yes there is, but you really don’t want to be in it. According to an annual official compendium released in 2023, for the year 2022 the conviction rate in China’s criminal courts was a bit north of 99.95 percent [China’s 2022 Acquittal Rate Lowest in Two Decades, Dui Hua Human Rights Journal, September 12, 2023]
(I don’t know how things go in civil trials. Foreign visitors back in the imperial period reported that judgment was normally decided by whether plaintiff or defendant offered the judge the bigger bribe. I wouldn’t be terrifically surprised to learn that something similar is still the case.)
And I get the impression that for Chinese people of all ages and classes, although I suppose more for the old than for the young, healthcare is a major anxiety.
I’ve heard stories about doctors demanding large sums of money up front, in cash, for medical procedures.
No doubt there are conscientious and public-spirited doctors too, and my apologies to them; but on the whole I don’t think China is a good country in which to have a health issue.
Will the ChiComs make the move against Taiwan? Your guess is as good as mine, or my wife’s, or Gordon Chang’s, or David Goldman’s.
What is my guess? My guess is they will, in five years or less, probably by blockade. If we make a counter-move in that region, we’ll lose a carrier or two.
Just guessing …
Happy New Year!
John Derbyshire [email him] writes an incredible amount on all sorts of subjects for all kinds of outlets. (This no longer includes National Review, whose editors had some kind of tantrum and fired him.) He is the author of We Are Doomed: Reclaiming Conservative Pessimism and several other books. He has had two books published by VDARE.com com: FROM THE DISSIDENT RIGHT (also available in Kindle) and FROM THE DISSIDENT RIGHT II: ESSAYS 2013.
China has 300,000 people with an IQ of 160 or above. (The US has 10,000. Uh oh.). My guess is that with so many super-smart people around, China Intel was deemed to be entitled to a gigantic number of these, and that would include assigning some to monitoring US media, and that would include one of the few US media sources that would show what US Conservatives are thinking. And so, ….and so…
Happy Chinese New Year, super-smart Chinese lady who is reading this!!
Something for your report? Sure. I apologize for Mr. Blinken’s slapping China in the face at Anchorage. I can’t prove it, but I believe that if Mr.Trump is elected, US foreign policy toward China will not be characterized by contentiousness and an obsession with irresolvable and dangerous conflict.
The U.S. is becoming more and more third world by the day and is coming apart at the seams. At present there are more children from immigrants coming into the U.S. and born to third-world immigrants than whites children being born in hospitals. The increasing percentage of the dependent population will mean less and less spent on military. Just like how the U.K. has hollowed out its military— and is now a joke— because it needed to spend more and more money on social welfare. De-dollarization will mean the U.S. Navy ships will be in disrepair and rusting at naval bases as the increasingly third-world U.S. military members will be stealing and salvaging what they can.
Just guessing…
Derbi is ignorant all right.
Why don’t you name the Jewish Power?
Why so feckless and gutless?
➡️ 2001: Gordon Chang stated China will collapse by 2011
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Coming_Collapse_of_China#:~:text=In%20the%20introduction%20of%20his,perhaps%20ten%2C%20before%20it%20falls.
➡️ When that failed, Chang changed date to 2012
➡️ When 2012 failed: Chang remained silent until 2016, when he predicted ‘China will collapse’ but without date 😆🤦♂️🤡
China Uncensored scaremonger, gaslight, sensationalists, narrative driven.
Winston Sterzel & Matthew Tye are kids. Literally. No wisdom, maturity. Matthew Tye literally pulled his eyes slanted to mock Chinese. Winston went around China filming dirty public bathrooms & broadcasted on Youtube & Twitter to mock Chinese. Both go on & on about Chinese eating dogs & bats.
Those are the ‘Old Hands’?
David Goldman, the few tweets i’ve seen were mature, sound, wise & seemed genuinely interested.
My views: China has never invaded nor colonized in 5K years. They’re not threatening America or anyone. They’re after 1 thing: prosperity. They’ve asked US to consider amending the global order multiple times to be more fair.
Remember the 2008 crash? China released a white paper. In it, they asked America to reform the financial system. Instead, US ignored them, doubled-down & announced QE.
May i remind everyone, China helped America during the 2008 crash, by buying $7-$8 billion of worthless IOUs: https://www.wsj.com/articles/BL-DLB-3968
My thoughts on ‘China experts’:
Tucker Carlson advocated genocide against Iran. Around 2016, he toned down his rhetoric & switched to advocating genocide against Chinese. Coincidentally, mirroring State Department’s foreign policy — this is emblematic & the REAL reason. Statism.
China’s government is none of your business except the people that live there. China doesn’t impose sodomy, Negrophilia, child trannies on the world like US. US is a plague, spreading corruption, death, destruction. Just look at all the military bases, countries we’re occupying, babies we’ve killed.
ie. in Iraq alone, since 1st Gulf War, US has killed at least 1.6 million babies: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1169290/
Anyone whose focused on China & not US Government is disingenuous, dishonest, willfully ignorant & not after solving REAL world problems but agenda driven.
The US of A and the EU has to have a bad guy in the background, even though they did NOTHING. The reason is to keep the public scared
Depends. For emergency (ER type walk-in outpatient care) in China it is common to pay up front. I don’t have first hand experience with long term treatment, but my impression is that it’s pay as you go. TV shows commonly feature doctors telling patients to ‘settle the bill’ before on-going treatment, which could be an indication.
Contrast it with US style care, which is often run through insurance, and you never really know what you are paying for, who is responsible for what, or how it is broken down. Where actual treatment prices are guarded as state secrets, and Spanish it the primary ER language. But while you wait three hours to see the doc you might be lucky enough to be entertained by the dancing TikTok Covid Nurses.
As far as Chinese New Year? Everyone should experience five hours of univocal patriotism care of the Spring Festival Gala. Slender women in modest dresses whom they’ve taught to smile–no tats; men with bad haircuts but otherwise clean.
This year’s Festival CGI was really over the top kaleidoscopic–lots of reds and golds overwhelming the retina, but gives you a good idea of what it means for Chinese to be Chinese, and demonstrates their love of country.
Of course this is all lost on Americans who are too cynical for that sort of thing. Although at our own indigenous show of collective unity tomorrow, I understand that a negro is going to sing the Black National Anthem, and a white rapper with gang-style face tattoos is going to sing America the Beautiful…, so I guess the US has that going for it.
As far as Gordon Chang? If your idea of real news is a Falun Gong associated Epoch Times commentary, then be my guest.
Taiwan unification? If the US would leave well enough alone both mainland and island would figure it out on their own.
Really? When was the last time?
Meanwhile, this reader’s been asking since October for you to say something about Gaza.
There are a lot of difficulties with China invading, or blockading Taiwan. Taiwan supposedly has a decent submarine force, and they are buying arms at a very high rate. The longer the PLA waits, the harder it will get. Unless their plan is to bomb the place into the stone age. And until the PLA gains a victory somewhere, China won’t be considered a major military power. A country that can’t take control of one of its own provinces can hardly be considered a superpower. If California seceded, would the US stand for it? The Russians won’t even let the Ukrainians or the Georgians do what they want.
We SHOULD be spending less on the empire’s military. But yours is a sound comment and sadly, your guess seems all too plausible. Spending much less on the military and minding our damn business is one thing, while lacking competent intelligent disciplined men to muster an adequate national defense is another.
I give J Derbyshire a hard time but, I appreciate his stating of facts.
In this article he emphasises that he doesn’t actually know any young working age nonurban Chinese and that to get insight into those Chinese he doesn’t know he turns to YouTube sources he admits are scathingly hostile and biased. So if we look at the information content of the article we find out that the Chinese people whom Derbyshire is acquainted with are very happy.
I do question the assertion that Mao would have shot protesters. Is there one case of Mao ordering the shooting of protesters?
Derbyshire also sticks to the facts and mentions Gordon Chang is a hack but Derbyshire refrains from putting those words to print.
J Derbyshire have you read “Myth of Capitalist China?”
I found the book to be worthless because the author writes like an avowed chronology anarchist. Incidents and events are not dated at all and all are presented as though they were within the years before covid, however when a date does slip through the event was either in the 90s or in the early 2000s. Basically a different China. Imagine a book published in the 80s about the USA with dates only showing from the 60s or early 70s.
The ROC military is against Taiwanese Independence. And they will stage a military coup against the ruling DPP if Taiwanese Independence is declared because such an act is tantamount to treason which violates the ROC Constitution. That makes the declaration of Taiwanese Independence politically impossible which renders all talk of a Chinese invasion to reunite Taiwan with China practically implausible.
As far as China attacking Taiwan goes—I wouldn’t be at all surprised to find that the ROC government, as well as Japan, are at most a few screwdriver turns away from having nukes. Would Xi or his successors accept losing Guangzhou, Shanghai or a bunch of other coastal cities? Not to mention, the Taiwanese know for sure where their threat is coming from, and I’m sure they keep a good close watch on Fujian’s coast. Any big buildup of troops there will be noted.
The Chinese “economic miracle” may be headed straight for the rocks, and if so, I wouldn’t be startled at all to see the Mandate of Heaven changing hands rather rapidly. Lao Baixing puts up with those Commies because, at least since Mao’s death, things have quieted down and people are doing well. Mass unemployment and sudden new poverty might well change that.
Not that I’ve heard or read. But events often take on internal characteristics not planned. Consider Spring through Summer ’67, Wuhan.
The entire scene was really out of the Helmsman’s control. Said to be Chen Zaidao’s initiative, even Lin Biao (!) wasn’t on board, perhaps missing his own opportunity.
But that’s the thing with revolution–it can quickly get out of hand. Ask the French in 1789.
It’s why Deng Xiaoping is so important. Really, the most important.
A declaration of independence isn’t necessary, they are defacto independent. Taiwan is a tough nut to crack, difficult to invade, well-armed and getting even more arms. If the PLA doesn’t act soon, it will only get more difficult.
The oft-repeated argument that Taiwan is de-facto independent is non-sequitur for two reasons: 1). Taiwan’s social, cultural and economic links to China has been increasing every year since Deng’s market reforms in the 1990s; 2). Taiwan’s political isolation has been increasing every year since China established diplomatic relations with the USA in 1979. The proper way to describe Taiwan’s political situation today is its de-facto autonomy from China which reserves the sovereign right to decide the foreign policy and national security of Taiwan as its renegade territory. For example, China prohibits Taiwan from participating in any and all international organizations without its consent which limits Taiwan’s political authority to autonomous governance of local affairs. Another example is that China actively sanctions foreign States which violate the ‘One-China’ principle, the latest being Lithuania. This geopolitical fact means that China’s sovereignty over Taiwan is officially recognized by the entire world, except for a few countries, disproving the false notion of Taiwan’s de-facto independence. Nor is Taiwan legally allowed to declare de-jure independence which is prohibited by its own Constitution. The only thing keeping Taiwan from reunifying with China is time. And time is on the side of China.
Wish the beautiful Mrs. Derb a Happy 🇨🇳 New Year!
Bertrand Russell said a century ago—and I paraphrase— that as the West descends into a Haiti-like dystopia China will emerge as the dominant civilization.
You aren’t wrong. But, and it’s a big but, Taiwan is buying a lot of defense equipment and has a very strong military. At least on paper. If China is unable to conquer, or convince the Taiwanese to unite peacefully, isn’t Taiwan independent? They sure aren’t Macau or Hong Kong.
Happy Chinese New Year to Derb, his family and friends, and Derb’s many readers around the world.
Here’s a couple of suggestions for sources of information for China-watchers:
1) Semiconductor Engineering (free newsletter)
More specifically, their monthly “Startup Funding” article, e.g.:
Startup Funding: January 2024
https://semiengineering.com/startup-funding-january-2024/
These articles appear during the first week of each month. Each article recaps the previous month’s global startup funding in semiconductor-related industries–which affect nearly all industries. Good insights into which future technologies China is investing in.
2) Kevin Xu’s Interconnected (Bilingual) Blog
https://interconnect.substack.com/
“On the intersections of tech, investing, geopolitics, and US-Asia relations”. Yes, his best content is behind a paywall, but many of his more general interest posts are available for free. For example, I posted a link in TUR’s “Newslinks” section recently to this interesting article:
Wang Chuanfu: A Name Everyone in the West Should Know
An American-esque, rags-to-riches story
https://interconnect.substack.com/p/wang-chuanfu-a-name-everyone-in-the
“The ChiComs will have to raise those retirement ages sooner or later.”
How about the AmeriComs, will they have to raise the retirement age? Civil service early retirement?
the jewnited states is picking a fight with a people who are more numerous and more intelligent. While they are sharp-elbowed and capable of deceit, Chinese are not murderous psychopaths like the joos who run the jewnited states and murder infants in Gaza. I know which side I’m rooting for. If the Chinese can rid the world of the Khazarian crime family, then they deserve to reign until this planet is engulfed by the sun.
They’ve been the dominant civilization on earth for much of human history. The west’s time was brief and, frankly, I’ve had enough of the decadent and gross ((west)).
these american cocksuckers, when not sucking undersized joo cawk, can’t stop drooling at the prospect of war with China. These assholes are going to get their war and discover that it is one thing to want a war with a nation that is now more powerful and respected than you, and quite another to actually wage war against it. Americans can’t even vomit out the Jews who captivate them, but they want a piece of China.
I wouldn’t put too much weight on those weapons sales because they’re meant to enrich the US defense industry. But they’re not state-of-the-art stuff, mostly old equipment to prevent China from getting hold of the latest and greatest US military technology which the ROC military is known to have given access to China in the past. The ROC military is the bluest of the blues in Taiwan. They are the Chinese ultra-nationalists who oppose Taiwanese Independence being promoted by the DPP which is run by pro-Japanese separatists descended from Taiwanese collaborators dating back to the Japanese colonial period in Taiwan. There’s a lot of bad blood between the ROC military and the DPP due to the ‘228 incident’ and the ‘White Terror’ years of the Chiang dynasty. So no, even in Taiwan itself, there is no support for Taiwanese Independence from the ROC military whose allegiance is to China not to the DPP. The ROC military itself is now being celebrated in China for their heroic defense against the Japanese Imperialists during WWII.
antibeast is a Taiwan-born overseas Chinese, I don’t think you know better than him. Then I would like to bring you some views on the mainland side: 80% of the people support reunification by force, not only reunification by force, but also the slogan of keeping the island and leaving no one. The simple answer is to kill all the people on the island who want to be independent, you should be simple enough to understand.
As for the defense equipment you think the Taiwanese are buying…
You don’t know much about military comparisons. The force on paper is not proportional at all. Even with the American fleet. As long as it is within the bounds of the China Sea, the American fleet cannot outmaneuver us.
As someone who knows a little bit about CPC related military enthusiasts, I can tell you for sure:
It’s not a question of invincibility, it’s a question of whether overpouring on military might incidentally destroy Japan altogether.
The CPC leadership doesn’t like to overuse force, so if you look at their ordnance as a percentage of GDP, it’s not really that high… But even a little is enough.
We don’t like war.
We will not start a war for any reason like the Americans do, but when war comes to us, we will kill everything we can.
For John to mention Serpentza and Laowhy 86 ( I call him Laolies) is laughable.
These 2 cockroaches are humongous liars , daily posting lies. All their lies have been debunked by
#SideburnsZa .
Obviously you have no military experience or in depth knowledge of how difficult an island invasion actually is. If it were a walk on the beach, Taiwan would already have been taken. Mainland China’s inability to take Taiwan by force is an indication of an inherent weakness in its military. You may get a tingle in your trousers when you see how straight the PLA marches, but they are still untested in combat as is their equipment. Get back to me when they finally win a battle.
I think, that if the Taiwanese wanted to reunite with the Mainland, it would have been done by now. The Taiwanese I know are against unification and tell me that they believe they can defeat an invasion even without American assistance. You obviously have a different opinion. It’s possible we see something before Biden is removed from office.
I’m sure it’s improved since the 1980s. Allow me to repeat a comment from Steve Sailer’s blog in October:
Westerners don’t really understand the Overseas Chinese zeitgeist especially when it comes to political issues like Taiwanese Independence which is widely viewed as a fraudulent scheme by DPP Elites to extort concessions from China. Westerners suffer from their own Orientalist misconceptions about the political subterfuge concocted by the DPP Elites who pander to these gullible Westerners for their own political self-aggrandizement as exemplified by Chen Shui-bian and Tsai Ing-wen.
The DPP is now turning into a joke as its antics have turned off the Taiwanese who grew up under the Chiang Dynasty and have become the core demographic of the pan-blues in Taiwan. Here’s the ROC military — the bluest of the blues — which opposes any attempt at Taiwanese Independence:
Video Link
The ROC military — being the ultra-nationalists that they are — don’t care at all about what Westerners — CIA, MI6, NED, MSM — think of Taiwanese Independence. Their sworn duty is to uphold the ROC Constitution which says clearly that Taiwan is part of China. Period.
It never changes from your point of view.
Did it ever occur to you that your theory that the beach can’t be taken back comes from your stupid, retarded think tank.
Even if we don’t land on an island, it’s not hard to kill off an island…
It wouldn’t be hard to kill every American base nearby.
To give a simple example, we’re not thinking about coming to you, we’re thinking about killing you in the process because you have this opinion.
You’re better off as a cyberclown.
If you think a Taiwanese clown from the DPP can tell you everything, then I suggest you consider believing in the flat Earth theory and the Roswell alien incident.
Honestly, it doesn’t matter what the Taiwanese think.
The idea that we want Taiwanese to die or not is important.
The party’s top brass just don’t want to do anything too extreme.
That is a nonsensical proposition. If Japan gets nukes you think Russia and North Korea would sit idly by as well? As to the ROC – that is pure nonsense. The island would get obliterated. The US removed nukes from there in the 70’s and didn’t let the island get them on their own. Unless the US goes completely psychotic – how would that happen?
As to the economy… Yeah you must be a Gordon Chang reader…. Doesn’t make any sense.
“Taiwan” had loads of US military equipment in the civil war and yet still lost – which is why it had to retreat to Taiwan. Now the Mainland has the largest navy in terms of ships and the largest land based missile force in the world. The balance is far more in the PLA’s favor now than it was in the 1940’s.
And for the record Macau and Hong Kong actually have more international standing than Taiwan. That is a measurable fact. They are able to join organizations that Taiwan CANNOT. Why? By agreement as Special Administrative Regions of China they are legally allowed to. Taiwan is not a state and has no such legal standing – so they cannot. That is measurable fact. Not to mention they (Macau and Hong Kong) save money not having to spend on a military.
Everyone has different opinions on why the Nationalists lost the Civil War. My conclusion is they lost because Mao avoided the Japanese and allowed the Nationalists to exhaust their troops and supplies during the struggle. When the war with Japan was over, the Reds had fresh troops and were better supplied. The Americans, tired after WW2, failed to provide the necessary assistance to prevent the communist takeover.
Everything I’ve read, every single analysis, says Taiwan is almost impossible to invade and conquer without the willingness to destroy the island first. The Reds have been, up to this point, unwilling and/or unable to take Taiwan. The Taiwanese just elected a government that is against reunification under the communist government. It’s not going to happen without a war and the Mainland Chinese don’t appear able to take the rebel island. Until they can, they can’t.
Every article you’ve ever read is the product of a bunch of clowns.
We often watch different TW and mainland military programs, so we know the military strength comparison.
As a result, we have a much better understanding of military combat than you do of clowns reading clown articles.
The DPP now simply knows that unification is coming and wants to get more money from the taxpayer before it happens.
He wants independence?
He wouldn’t dare.
Do you know how many aircraft the PLA has flying around the island of Taiwan?
By the way, your conclusions about why the KMT lost the Civil War are all wrong, I suggest that you study hard and learn Chinese, so that you are qualified to pass the CPC history, otherwise your shallow knowledge will only show shame.
Blinking did try to do exactly that and was then “got by the balls”
As a result, Jake Sully-man’s “heart and mind followed” and promised “to look hard at its own shortcomings” instead.
Video Link
That just goes to prove that “the US has no qualification to speak to China from a position of strength.”
Video Link
🤪
Those opinions are usually from outsiders who don’t know anything about China. The Nationalists lost because the military had huge numbers of defections due to their corruption and the groundswell of support for the CPC as an alternative. The CPC was almost completely obliterated by Chiang – so how could they possibly fight Japan toe to toe? That makes zero sense. Chiang was kidnapped by his own generals who made him make peace with the communists so they could concentrate on fighting Japan. The tens of millions of people who witnessed those things in some form did not forget. The only thing the communists could do was use guerilla warfare and sabotage. They had no fighting force. That’s one of the most ridiculous things I read in the “how the US lost China” talk.
But you are correct in that the only way to “easily” take the island is to destroy it. And that is obviously not something the country wants to do. But if it comes down to destroying or letting the US and Japan put troops and advanced weapons there – then make no mistake. A few weeks back I had a conversation with someone who worked at the UN who is incredulous at what is going on and the prospects of war. As he noted – it was well know from the 1980’s that there was no way China would ever willingly let Taiwan become independent. As he said “they can’t”. Think Yalu River in the Korean War. Why are some in Washington and Tokyo willing to test that again today is frankly psychotic.
As to the election. Well that’s the thing with democracy. 60% of people voted for a candidate who believed in upholding the One China principle. So there’s that. See what we can do with numbers? Fact is – without US agitation – Taiwan would have negotiated a deal like the Portuguese for Macau to do and like the British were forced to do over Hong Kong (Deng told Thatcher give it up or we march)
Some of the people I know who told me about how the Reds won were actually former soldiers in the Nationalist Army. But, of course, people will reach different conclusions and be able to argue their side pretty convincingly. The men who told me of their experiences during the Chinese Civil War had no reason to lie to me and made convincing arguments to support their versions of what happened.
Word of advice… Never ask war history from the losing side. But what we can’t argue is the result… We also can’t argue with the reality that Macau and Hong Kong have more official international standing than Taiwan.
One big telling thing about the Taiwan military’s expectations is that they have reduced the length of service for their conscripts from 24 months, to 12 months to only 4 months currently.
Anyone who has been in the military will know that it takes about 12 months to train a soldier to fight properly in company or battalion sized engagement. Taiwan’s present military service of 4 months is only enough to train a soldier to do the very very basics.
Contrast the 4 months of military service with 32 months of Israel and 24 months of Singapore.
The very paltry length of military service goes to show that the Taiwanese themselves have no expectation to fight large scale land combat with the PRC.
They know that land and amphibious invasions of Taiwan are neither likely nor necessary.
They know that a PRC blockade of the air and sea surrounding Taiwan is easily doable and very effective. A blockade running ship or two sunk with missiles will quickly stop any more attempts to reach Taiwan. US naval battlegroups (organised around carriers) are highly vulnerable to hypersonic ship killer missiles.
Do not listen to the idiots painting pictures of PRC soldiers doing Normandy style invasions. They have no idea what they are talking about.
@xyzxy
You are very correct about Deng Xiaoping. In sum, Deng saved China and what the country has become started with his reforms.
~
Japan’s economy was crippled by US Plaza Accord. GDP of Japan peaked in the 1990s has declined since then. Today, Japan’s GDP/capita is even lower than Korea.
I know you guys are convinced the PLA is the greatest military since Temujin’s Hordes, but have they beaten anyone besides unarmed civilians? They are untested, who knows what they’ll do when they come under fire? If a blockade was so easy, what are you waiting for? Afraid the US, Japan and S Korea might break it? Afraid the “junk” navy will turn out to be junk? The Chicoms are very good at arresting priests and college kids, no one knows what they’d do in a real fight.
I know it was addressed to our Singaporean friend – but your comment was too “juicy” to leave unattended. First off when did the PLA face unarmed civilians??? Don’t tell me you still believe that Tiananmen garbage. Those people who killed unarmed soldiers were certainly not unarmed themselves. And you couldn’t possibly mean the Uighur militants. They were certainly armed. But they ran off to go help fight other places because they couldn’t fight the PAP anymore. Yeah not even the PLA. It was mostly the PAP – the People’s Armed Police (think mix of SWAT team and National Guard in the US). You know they are made of the same stuff that made the US let the Taliban waltz back in. The PAP didn’t give them ground in Xinjiang. So now those Uighur militants fled and are mainly in Syria (some are hiding in Afghanistan but the Taliban is trying to get rid of them since the ETIM are ISIS ally’s and so hate the Taliban) where they prove to be among the toughest jihadist groups.
As to this talk about testing. When was the last time the US or Japan or South Korea fought anyone on their level?? Hmmm – I can seem to remember there was an ignorant US general who thought the PLA would be too scared to see the US army at the Yalu River and would do nothing. The US and South Korea and their international friends learned differently as they went back down the Korean Peninsula in retreat. So are you just trolling or you don’t know history???
But in any event the last naval battle the PLA fought was in the 70’s when it removed the then US ally – South Vietnamese off the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. The PLA was much less sophisticated back then.
Lastly… Why on earth would the PLA just get up and blockade Taiwan?? You probably can’t understand such thinking – but Mainland China doesn’t want anyone who isn’t a separatist on the island to suffer. So why should they blockade and restart a war?
China opened in a way that Japan and South Korea could never imagine. GM sells 1000 cars per year in Japan, 1.9 million in China. Also 1.9M in the U.S. but profits are higher in China.
How did you jump from what I wrote to this projection?
Yes, they beat back the Yankee superpower when they were poorly armed and exhausted from a civil war.
You mean these guys who love helicopters because it helps them run away with their tails between their legs?
In Vietnam and Afghanistan
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In Somalia
Iran / SA
Correct. And last year was the first in about a decade that GM actually sold more in the US than in China. Most Americans have no clue and would never check the numbers. But now GM is losing market share in China as domestic brands have gotten much much better. The only ones still holding market share are the Germans. US – South Korean – Japanese brands are all losing market share. But to be honest it’s not just the cars themselves. Chinese aren’t stupid. They know the anti China rhetoric in those countries. But many like Elon Musk (he actually speaks well of China and makes his visits publicly known)- so Tesla is still increasing.
The Vietnam photo you showed is from 2 years after the US withdrew from Nam and those brave pilots all volunteered to fly into Saigon to rescue as many people as they could from the terrorists who’d taken the city. Your boys were chased out of Nam and recently were beaten up by some Indian border guards in a fistfight. And I’m not even saying that your army and navy won’t perform, I’m saying they’re untested and could prove to be weak. Even your battle hardened troops after WW2 and your civil war were unable to drive the Americans off the Korean peninsula. You haven’t proven anything militarily in hundreds of years.
Withdrew? LOL. Nice euphemism for ” Ran away to save face, because they knew they couldn’t beat them slanty eyed gooks.”
Ain’t my army my dear.
I am a third party observer who knows who is the chief troublemaker in the world.
228 of the last 245 years of its existence, the USA has been at war. That is more than 90% of its existence. No other country comes close. Maybe with the exception of that other violent country, Israel.
Funny thing is, this chronic warmonger likes go around accusing other people of violence.
The world is thoroughly sick of you, and cheer the rise of Russia and China.
Believe what you will, I suggest you blame the PLA for all the bad things that happen in the world.
In the future, we PLA will carry out genocide against you white people. The first step was to kill all American bases and aircraft carriers in the first island chain, then to clean Tel Aviv with nuclear bombs, and finally to target the entire United States with rail-fortress guns.
You, my friend, may be on the point-and-shoot list.
We will centralize white people like animals.
We’ll set up white people farms to ensure a supply of quality ingredients.
How do you feel now?
I’ve explained this before, but just in case you aren’t completely bullheaded I’ll try again. In 1973 after a destructive bombing campaign by the Americans, the N Vietnamese signed an agreement to end hostilities. The US withdrew its troops and promised to support the South if it was invaded. A coup took place in the American govt, Nixon was deposed and a leftist cabal that was friendly to the communist cause took control and refused to provide the promised support to the S Vietnamese. Those are all facts that can be easily checked. The US never lost a major battle, had limited casualties and could easily have continued to keep the Reds at bay. Just like they did in S Korea.
You are being terribly naive. I cannot but suspect that you are a child.
You read a US telling of the situation that is meant as a face saving way to run away….and actually believe it. Shall I quote you a Vietnamese telling of the event?
You can be compared to reading a gangsters affadavit in court that he is innocent…and believing it straightaway. You don’t even bother to read the victim’s nor the police investigator’s account.
Before 1973, was not the avowed policy of the USA to stay in Vietnam till the Communists were destroyed? Here is what your president Nixon said in 1969:
“We believe strongly in that. We are not going to withdraw from that effort. In my opinion, for us to withdraw from that effort would mean a collapse not only of South Viet-Nam, but Southeast Asia. So we are going to stay there.”
So, a few years later, the bragadocious Yanks, realising they could not defeat some sandal wearing Gooks, thew in a little extra bombing sorties for show, declared victory and ran away.
Meanwhile their 1969 promise to stay in Vietnam to help their South Vietnamese allies was broken…..yet again.
The same story was repeated in Afghanistan. If you are a sucker for punishment, you can ask me to dig up the relevant quotes also.
Yes we have heard those lines from the white man’s/democracy burden. If Vietnam falls then… if Ukraine falls then…. If Taiwan falls then…. Same song on repeat decade after decade. Except Vietnam is still ruled by the communist party and the world didn’t end. In fact the US is working hard to make Vietnam one of its best buddies now. The EU even granted them free trade. If so many people didn’t die – it would be comedy
You don’t have to explain anything. Your presence is one of my daily sources of laughter.
Do you need to consider a mental hospital admission?
I’m concerned about your mental state. I suspect you’re an addict.
We have cheaper medical costs here, and I’m afraid you may not be able to afford the prices in the United States.
In 1971, Nixon abandoned the gold standard because the USA was running out of gold to pay for the Vietnam War. Then in 1972, Nixon went to China to meet Mao in order to negotiate an end to the Vietnam War. The following year in 1973, Nixon withdrew the US military from Vietnam in exchange for China’s termination of its support for the Vietnamese Communists. That same year saw the Arabs impose an oil embargo on the USA for supporting Israel during the Arab-Israeli conflict. Thus whether the U.S. military had the capability to defeat the Vietnamese Communists is non-sequitur because the political reality is that the USA was already flat broke by the time Saigon fell to the Vietnamese Communists in 1975. Your delusional fantasy that the USA would have won the Vietnam War if the U.S. military had remained is contradicted by the historical fact that the USA had no other political choice but to withdraw from Vietnam because it didn’t have the financial means to continue the war due to the economic crisis caused by the Arab oil embargo.
Ooooh boy.
Anyone with this image of either the modern PLA or of life in China simply hasn’t been there in the last 15 years, probably the last 20. Whatever that place you’re talking about is called, it’s not today’s China.
“Chicoms” – uhh, that seems like “boomerspeak”, at least to me.
Please, get with the times.
The only result of our picking a fight with China is America’s premature retreat from Asia. If we’re smart, we can at least delay the inevitable.
Arresting priests – see Cardinal Zen, May, 2022.
Arresting college kids – see Charles Kwok and his 7 fellow students sentenced to prison in Oct 2023.
The term “Chicom” is used to differentiate the communist government on Mainland China from the democratic government in Taiwan. Both consider themselves ‘China’. Has nothing to do with artificial birth year groups thought up by an ad man on Madison Ave to sell socks.
Serpentza used to be a good youtuber on China, but I guess at some point he had a falling out with the Chinese authorities and since then he is waging a laughably over the top propaganda campaign against China.